YX 4585 · XNA → LGA

took off 6:08 AM CT · expected to land 9:24 AM ET (scheduled 5:56 AM CT → 10:07 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ XNA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

XNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4585 · XNA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?