Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4590 IN THE AIR (OFF 8:04 AM CT, ETA 10:38 AM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4590 · ORD → JFK

took off 8:04 AM CT · expected to land 10:38 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4590 · ORD → JFK

Odds over time