Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4593
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4593 · LGA → MSN
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±6 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.21 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.