Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4643
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4643 · ORF → ORD
departs 11:58 AM ET · arrives 1:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.49 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.