YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

LIT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?