Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4673
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4673 · ORD → ROA
departs 8:19 PM CT · arrives 11:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ROA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ROA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROA (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.