Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4680 · LGA → CMH
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.