YX 4688 · ROA → LGA

departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ ROA is quiet at that time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4688 · ROA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?