YX 4703 · ROC → BOS

departs 5:50 PM ET · arrives 7:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4703 · ROC → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?