Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4728 · LGA → STL
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 29%
Thu 10/8 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.