Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4759
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 4759 · ORD → ATL
departs 1:35 PM CT · arrives 4:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.