Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4761 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4761 · CVG → BOS

departs 7:05 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

55% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4761 · CVG → BOS

Odds over time