Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4775 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

departs 10:11 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

GRR (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4775 · LGA → GRR

Odds over time