YX 4778 · PHL → MCI

departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.26 in

MCI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4778 · PHL → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?