YX 4797 · ORD → PVD

took off 2:18 PM CT · expected to land 5:03 PM ET (scheduled 1:17 PM CT → 4:45 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PVD?

LIVE

On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PVD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PVD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4797 · ORD → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?