YX 4807 · MEM → LGA

departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4807 · MEM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?