YX 5617 · LGA → BNA

departs 10:29 AM ET · arrives 12:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

BNA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5617 · LGA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?