Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 5621 · LGA → TVC
departs 8:50 AM ET · arrives 11:11 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at LGA that day
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.08 in
TVC (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.