YX 5633 · LGA → JAX

departs 8:21 AM ET · arrives 10:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

JAX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5633 · LGA → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?