Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5661
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 5661 · GRR → LGA
departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.