Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5688
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5688 · BNA → LGA
departs 9:26 AM CT · arrives 12:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.41 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.