Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5718
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5718 · EWR → BOS
departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 10:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 38%
Thu 10/8 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
9%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.