Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5779 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 5779 · JFK → IAD

departs 4:37 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5779 · JFK → IAD

Odds over time