YX 5803 · PWM → LGA

departs 5:25 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at PWM that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5803 · PWM → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?