Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 5811 · RIC → LGA
departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 7:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Fri 10/9 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at RIC that day
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.43 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.