Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 5815 · LGA → RIC
departs 9:15 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at RIC that day
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.21 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.