Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4688 LANDED 3:05 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 4688 · MDW → DTW

took off 1:29 PM CT · landed 3:05 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MDW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4688 · MDW → DTW

Odds over time