Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4909 LANDED 5:23 PM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 4909 · JFK → BNA

took off 4:29 PM ET · landed 5:23 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

BNA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4909 · JFK → BNA

Odds over time