9E 4938 · LGA → BHM

departs 9:21 PM ET · arrives 10:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BHM?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
28%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4938 · LGA → BHM

Odds over time

How late will it get to BHM?