9E 4967 · RDU → AUS

took off 4:23 PM ET · landed 6:13 PM CT (scheduled 4:26 PM ET → 6:40 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at RDU that day

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4967 · RDU → AUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AUS?