9E 4990 · BHM → DTW

departs 5:08 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BHM are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

BHM (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4990 · BHM → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?