9E 5123 · JFK → JAX

took off 6:39 PM ET · landed 8:43 PM ET (scheduled 6:32 PM ET → 9:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at JFK that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

JAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5123 · JFK → JAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to JAX?