Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5126 LANDED 9:05 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 5126 · DTW → MSN

took off 9:13 PM ET · landed 9:05 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5126 · DTW → MSN

Odds over time