Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5128 LANDED 4:24 PM CT, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 5128 · ATL → XNA

took off 3:53 PM ET · landed 4:24 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ATL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.03 in

XNA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5128 · ATL → XNA

Odds over time