Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5264 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:36 PM ET, ETA 11:21 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 5264 · JFK → BUF

took off 10:36 PM ET · expected to land 11:21 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

BUF (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5264 · JFK → BUF

Odds over time