Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5298 LANDED 2:02 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9E 5298 · ROC → LGA

took off 1:07 PM ET · landed 2:02 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LGA that day

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

LGA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5298 · ROC → LGA

Odds over time