9E 5478 · DTW → CVG

departs 10:03 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5478 · DTW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?