9X 519 · MKK → HNL

departs 11:00 AM HT · arrives 11:59 AM HT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 519 · MKK → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?