Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 528 LANDED 12:56 PM HT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 5 Today

9X 528 · HNL → MKK

took off 12:34 PM HT · landed 12:56 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MKK usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MKK (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 528 · HNL → MKK

Odds over time