9X 609 · OGG → MKK

departs 8:30 AM HT · arrives 9:27 AM HT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKK?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK

↓ 8am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKK (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 609 · OGG → MKK

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKK?