9X 792 · MKK → OGG

departs 9:25 AM HT · arrives 10:23 AM HT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKK

↓ Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 792 · MKK → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?