Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1015SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1015 · XNA → PHL
departs 6:08 AM CT · arrives 9:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±1 pts−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.