AA 1078 · PHX → ORD

departs 3:15 PM MT · arrives 8:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1078 · PHX → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?