AA 1160 · DFW → SAN

departs 8:46 PM CT · arrives 9:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
49%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1160 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?