Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1186 · LAX → DFW

departs 9:02 AM PT · arrives 2:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1186 · LAX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?