Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1188 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1188 · PHX → PHL

departs 10:02 PM MT · arrives 5:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at PHL that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,233 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1188 · PHX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?