Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1197 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5 Tomorrow

AA 1197 · PHX → SJC

departs 8:51 PM MT · arrives 10:41 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1197 · PHX → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?