AA 1209 · PHL → CLE

took off 3:14 PM ET · landed 4:19 PM ET (scheduled 3:00 PM ET → 4:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CLE?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CLE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1209 · PHL → CLE

Odds over time

How late did it get to CLE?