AA 1294 · ORD → RDU

departs 4:32 PM CT · arrives 7:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1294 · ORD → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?