Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1314 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 1314 · PHL → AUS

departs 5:39 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1314 · PHL → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?